The Arlington Million, the $1 million, Grade 1 Stakes race that took place this past Saturday at Arlington Park in Chicago is a “Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series” race that if won gets that horse into this November’s Breeders’ Cup Longines Turf event worth $4,000,000. Beginning in 1981, historically, the Arlington Million has recorded victories by some of the top turf horses that horse racing has ever seen.
So to handicap this race seems pretty intimidating, doesn’t it? Why, exactly, is that? Perhaps because you have such talented competitive horses, some coming from Europe as the best foreign shippers turf horse racing has to offer, casual handicappers scratch their heads and try to find anything that they think will separate the contenders. Not an easy task. Or so you would think.
Professional and public handicappers generally felt that Saturday in this Arlington Million, the consensus boiled down to four horses. Oscar Nominated, Mekhtaal, Deauville and Kasaqui were thought the best for a variety of very valid reasons.
What I am going to show you is how having iHandicapRaces with PacePals will, time and time again, through a consistent methodology using artificial intelligence will inevitably lead you to results that the most knowledgable experts in horse racing will sometimes miss.
Realistically, as we all know by now, a positive ROI does NOT depend, over time, on selecting a single winner. Thoroughbred horses are athletes like athletes in any sport. Things happen in a race that aren’t always expected.
So what are we to do? In the most obvious and elemental way, we need to reduce the race to the logical contenders based on statistical probability in any given field and then wager on the horse or horses within those contenders that will provide the most value. People are pretty good at recognizing that. iHandicapRaces with PacePals is much, much better.
Here is the method… when evaluating the horses in any stakes race, dirt or turf, we need to look at the horse’s last race. Who are the best off their last race? We aren’t looking at workouts, or trainers and jockeys, track bias or anything else as a single separating factor. We are honing in on their last race. A stakes race is not like any average claiming or maiden event that we find occurring on a daily basis at tracks all over America. So what better race to demonstrate how iHandicapRaces with PacePals solves the riddle than the Arlington Million.
Looking at our speed graph first to get a general idea about the fastest horses based initially on their last three races, we see #10, Beach Patrol, is consistently the fastest of our very competitive turf entries. Look at the next graph to see what I mean about the last race as an indicator of potential success.
When we look at all the horses’ last three races separately in the “days since last race” graph, in isolating Beach Patrol, our top contender that iHandicapRaces with PacePals has given us, we were able to determine very easily that this horse had the fastest feet per second at 55.33 in its last race compared to the rest of the field. This also showed us the improvement that Beach Patrol had made in its last three outings. Look further at the next graph, the Quad Plot.
In the Quad Plot, based on the horses’ last race, we are able to see how Beach Patrol stacked up against the rest of these great horses. Not only the fastest at 55.33 but carrying that speed with the best pace figure of 101.8. Let’s just isolate Beach Patrol in the Quad Plot in the next graph to see how good that last race was.
Compared to all the other talented American and foreign turf horses, Beach Patrol is obviously the best for today’s matchup.
The important point to make here, as you can again easily see from the STATS box, is that Beach Patrol didn’t win that last race, as great as it was compared to all the other horses’ last race, but was a beaten favorite. And as we know from our previous blogs, impact values tell us that beaten favorites not only win more than their fair share of races, they have a very POSITIVE Impact Value of 1.62. This is a VERY FAVORABLE horse.
We can also see from our PacePals chart below that Beach Patrol was rated as the best horse based on its last race as well.
So how do we bet this?
Beach Patrol, #10, won driving down the stretch and paid $11.80.
If our bankroll, betting comfort and safety tells us to use the HD Calculator, we made just under 200% ROI, betting iHandicapRaces with PacePals’ top three contenders and winning a minimum 180% ROI had Kasaqui, the third choice, from Argentina won.
As it turns out, the crowd read all the public handicappers and made Deauville, the Irish champion, the favorite at 9/5, who ran a very competitive effort and finished third behind Beach Patrol and the unbelievable long shot, Fanciful Angel, also from Ireland, who finished second at 73/1.
A $2 exacta, keying our top choice with the field, as you see below, with #9, Scottish, having scratched…because of the odds of our second place finisher, returned a whopping and very satisfying $995 for $22 bet.
So let’s review…
We base our handicapping analysis of a Stakes race on the contenders’ last race. Our probable winner emerges from the speed and pace graphs and the Quad Plot indicators of that last race. If the horse has great connections or is a beaten favorite, all the better. But focus on the last race as only iHandicapRaces with PacePals makes interpreting so abundantly clear, wager for value, and a positive ROI will be the result.