In our most recent blog, “Solving the Riddle of Handicapping Stakes Races” I proposed the following…
“In the most obvious and elemental way, we need to reduce the race to the logical contenders based on statistical probability in any given field and then wager on the horse or horses within those contenders that will provide the most value. People are pretty good at recognizing that. iHandicapRaces with PacePals is much, much better.
Here is the method… when evaluating the horses in any stakes race, dirt or turf, we need to look at the horse’s last race. Who are the best off their last race? We aren’t looking at workouts, or trainers and jockeys, track bias or anything else as a single separating factor. We are honing in on their last race. A stakes race is not like any average claiming or maiden event that we find occurring on a daily basis at tracks all over America. So what better race to demonstrate how iHandicapRaces with PacePals solves the riddle than the Arlington Million.”
I would like to qualify that by saying now, as of this past Saturday’s premier stakes race, the historical Travers at Saratoga, “So what better race to demonstrate how iHandicapRaces with PacePals solves the riddle than the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.” Because both stakes races are solid examples of how using iHandicapRaces with PacePals and looking at the last effort in a stakes race will lead you to those top 3 or 4 contenders that will produce the winner more often than not. Then next, the obvious question, is there value in betting one or more of these contenders that iHandicapRaces with PacePals has led us to? With Tapwrit as the morning-line favorite at 7/2, we have been given an early and probable answer to that.
If we start the process, as usually we should, we observe the speed graph at the default settings that iHandicapRaces with PacePals gives us as the first step.
We can easily see the contenders that the artificial intelligence of our pick engine has produced based on all of the handicapping angles that have been processed by the iHandicapRaces with PacePals’ algorithms differentiating each contender from one another The advantage of this is that we are also seeing what horses are consistently fastest in terms of feet per second in their last three races regardless of surface, visually and quickly. We don’t need to pore over speed figures and fractional times at various calls of these last three races for each and every horse in the field in the racing form. It has been done for you.
Next, we want to look at our speed graph below and check the feet per second that each horse achieved in its LAST effort. Again, notice how visually and quickly we can accomplish this using iHandicapRaces with PacePals. Now we get a look at speed as seen not through an average, but recency. In other words, FORM.
Next, we want to go through the same process for early pace to see what contenders might carry that speed to jump out to a lead. The last three average on both surfaces, as it applies, remembering that pace is thought of as the overall speed in which a race was run, but also as a handicapper you must be acutely aware of recognizing those horses capable of sustained pace in the early stages of a race as well as how it relates to overall pace. This normally would be labor intensive as well as incredibly time-consuming, creating many opportunities to make mistakes as all handicappers are prone to do. But NOT with the visual clarity and conciseness of iHandicapRaces with PacePals.
And early pace below as seen in the horses’ last race on dirt, today’s surface.
And now the same recognition below as seen in overall pace for the last race on both surfaces in case we have a turf standout that might surprise on the dirt.
So we need to know not only how fast any contender runs, but how that horse runs fast. The QUAD PLOT gives us that better, in a matchup of the horses running against each other today, than any handicapping tool that I know of. Take note of the four horses in the Quad Plot. Because of this, we see in an instant what horses have the ability to get out away from the rest of the field regardless of their running style. Even professional handicappers sometimes overlook the fact that running style is not always going to be a constant in and of itself. But rather, and more importantly, is a result of the horses that create the matchup for any given race. Stakes quality horses have the talent to usually adapt to what is required in a winning run style based on its opponents. Can we see this any easier?
Our top choice, #3, West Coast, dominates in early pace versus this field with its last three races in the Quad Plot for early pace. Look at the two Quad Plots below where we isolate West Coast and then compare to the others in the Quad Plot in their last three races for early pace.
We should take a brief look at the last 5 races for each horse in the Quad Plot to get a visual sense of any horses consistently dominating. And then see how our contenders stack up in overall pace based on their last race. Basically, this would be impossible with the racing form. With iHandicapRaces with PacePals… you just need to look at the graphs.
Who are the best horses in this field in overall pace based on their last race? Just look below…
Can you imagine if you asked a traditional handicapper to accomplish what we just did in a matter of a few minutes?
We have established quickly who has the best early speed and pace in its last five races, its last three, and its most recent race out of an entire field of some of the most talented horses the sport has to offer. Our traditional handicapper would then have to try to determine the contenders who have the best overall pace and speed combined. We just need to look…
Are you starting to feel confident about our top contender’s chances? On top of that, look at the stats below we have available to us to further evaluate. West Coast’s connections are awesome. Remember, TAPWRIT is the early favorite, at 7/2.
We can see who those connections are by simply looking at the PacePals chart. Bob Baffert and “Hall of Famer,” Mike Smith for the ride. Easy enough to evaluate, wouldn’t you say?
West Coast had little trouble putting the field away, winning wire to wire, 3 1/4 lengths in front and paying $14.60.
So how to bet to win? Good Samaritan, #5, became the post time favorite at just under 4/1, so real value in all the contenders. If you were worried about the favorite, we need to use the HD Calculator to cover ourselves. ALWAYS MINIMIZE OUR LOSSES. We can bet the top 4 contenders, as you see below, and realize a minimum of 75% no matter which contender wins. Or look further…
If we feel confident in our top three contenders, we can increase our ROI to a minimum of 125%. Spectacular, isn’t it, to be able to modify your bet accurately and instantly without error and giving you the maximum return based on the odds.
And in the following examples, we can increase our return on the horse we feel the most confident in of the three by simply tapping the + button until you get what you want for all three. Observe the following three examples below…
And if we are really only concerned about our top choice and the favorite, what iHandicapRaces with PacePals has given us with no handicapping, if that is how you would choose to go, Look how easy and more significantly CORRECT. You are controlling the return on your investment.
And again, increase the amount bet of your base wager on the horse you feel strongest about without fear of losing to the favorite, and getting a great return had the favorite won.
Look at Good Samaritan’s Stats Box below and immediately you are acutely aware that the jockey and trainer connections are just not as strong as West Coast. As it turns out, Good Samaritan finished a distant 9 lengths behind West Coast.
In stakes’ races, as I said in the previous blog, hone in on the last race to narrow down your contenders. This is what separates the potential winner from the rest, but it doesn’t hurt to have Mike Smith and Bob Baffert helping. AND NEEDLESS TO SAY…IT DOESN’T HURT TO HAVE iHandicapRaces with PacePals more than helping you make the correct decisions in both your handicapping and betting.