Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed…Wait…What?

Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed…Wait…What?

Isn’t that alluding to an old English tradition that has to do with marriage?

Yes, only in this instance, it is going to be the approach for you that will unlock the mystery of the exacta.  This has been provoking handicappers forever to wonder how anyone could seriously expect to consistently beat this infuriating betting proposition.  It is simply too much of a risk to expect to pick the horse that finishes first and the horse that finishes second in exact order.

Well, fortunately for us, that is not correct.  It can not only provide a positive ROI, but provides tremendous value for any horse player.  Exacta pools are almost always larger than any of the straight mutual pools.

We have referenced the prolific and ingenious Dick Mitchell in previous writings who was the author of the best-selling book Winning Thoroughbred Strategies as well as others that include Myths That Destroy a Horseplayer’s Bankroll, Commonsense Betting and Thoroughbred Handicapping as an Investment.  He revolutionized how to bet Thoroughbreds by putting into effect mathematical concepts in determining horse racing outcomes. This accurate mathematical approach finally solved the questions that had consistently plagued bettors about both handicapping and wagering.

His successful “Mitchell Matrix” for exacta betting was introduced back in the 80’s.  So we have our “something old.”

What is the “Mitchell Matrix” and how can it, when combined with iHandicapRaces with PacePals, our “something new” visual methodology of handicapping and betting tools, lead us to a positive and extremely profitable ROI?

First, we need to have an understanding of the certainty of the proven mathematical concepts that Dick Mitchell provided for any handicapper who is fortunate enough to have read his books.

For example, suppose we have four horses that we feel are contenders to win.  We believe, odds aside, from our handicapping, that each horse has a relatively equal chance of winning.  Each also, of course, has a relatively equal chance to finish second.  How does this affect our thinking for the exacta.  It ultimately means that we need to realize that all twelve possible combinations of the four horses also have an equal chance of winning the exacta proposition.

Dick Mitchell would point out to us that since the risk is the same on all of the combinations, it simply makes Return On Investment and mathematical sense to bet only those combinations that are going to end up giving us the most profit.

The sad reality of how casual horseplayers approach the exacta wager is that, instead of handicapping the contenders, because that becomes too difficult, relying on the top two, three, or four betting choices on the tote board and boxing them.  This is a losing proposition in the long run because the payouts that occur when you win are too low to offset the ones that you lose.  Realistically, a positive ROI will simply not happen.

Without going into the complexities of assigning your own odds to your contenders, no matter how many real contenders you have determined, or the actual chart Dick Mitchell created, let’s see how we can adapt the concept of the matrix with the superior artificial intelligence of iHandicapRaces with PacePals to choose your contenders.

If you have the discipline to bet only your contenders that have odds of 9/2 or higher in combination and refuse to fall into the thinking of the crowd in boxing the first four or five favorites in a race to hit the exacta, you are now starting to employ the mathematical reality of making money with the exacta.

So we are going to “borrow” from “something old” and mix it with “something new”.  Let’s see how it works…

We can examine what led us to believe iHandicapRaces with PacePals was correct in contender selection again. As you will see, far better than the public’s final assessment.

This past weekend at Belmont in Race 1 on Sunday, our first four contenders were given to us by the incredible algorithms and artificial intelligence of iHandicapRaces with PacePals.

The top four contenders are closely matched as we can see below in our speed and pace charts.

The odds on #5, Euro Verde, our first choice were 9/2.

The odds on #1, Final Flurry, our second choice and the crowd favorite, were less than even money at not quite 4/5.

The odds on #4, Mugu, our third choice were 3/1.

The odds on #7, Paluxy Princess, our fourth choice were 35/1.

Dick Mitchell would say look at the closeness of the contenders…are we going to blindly box them all or take advantage of the disparity in odds?

The Quad Plot for Paluxy Princess shows us a route horse who has the speed and pace to be in the mix with sprinters.

What is obvious to users of iHandicapRaces with PacePals is that Paluxy Princess, based on her last race, is the second best horse in the field and is being allowed to go off at ridiculous odds compared to the other contenders.

Then when we look at races run in the last 90 days, especially with young horses in a maiden race, Paluxy Princess and Final Flurry have shown tremendous improvement and as our days since last race chart so visually and clearly depicts, as route horses are faster than the sprinters in the field.

And as we look at the PacePals chart, the top contender is our winner, Paluxy Princess, who started at 12/1 on the morning line and ballooned up to 35/1 by race time.  Final Flurry is second, but went from 8/5 to 3/5, an untenable win bet as an undeserved underlay considering the closeness of our contenders.  There is no value in betting Final Flurry as a win bet or as an exacta bet if she had won.

Paluxy Princess would be a  great win bet with Final Flurry using our HD Calculator or Paluxy Princess alone as the huge overlay since she won and paid $72.50.

But as exacta players, we are not going to blindly bet the top four horses on the tote board in combination, because we would lose.  And with a favorite going off at 3/5, even if we won, we would lose.

By using the Mitchell Matrix and following our adapted rules in combination with the incredible ability of iHandicapRaces with PacePals to choose contenders, even without handicapping, we have the following bets for the exacta.

We box #5, Ouro Verde, the iHandicapRaces with PacePals’ top choice with #7, Paluxy Princess, our fourth choice, because #1 and #4 simply don’t qualify on our odds limitation.  This exacta won easily with #7, Paluxy Princess and #5, Ouro Verde finishing a combined 4 and 3/4 lengths ahead of the favorite and paid a remarkable $378.

I would recommend reading Dick Mitchell’s works for any horse racing enthusiast, but if you can only find the time to read one book, Common Sense Betting would be the best to lead you to the correct guidelines to follow when it comes to placing your bet.  When you combine that knowledge with the incredible and accurate innovation of using artificial intelligence presented in the visual methodology of iHandicapRaces with PacePals, not only will you become a better handicapper but a winning one as well.